“Hvilken kunnskapsbase er det myndighetene og helsedirektoratet lener seg til – når de gang på gang insisterer på bruk av strenge restriksjoner og lockdown? Her er i alle fall 30 publiserte studier som viser at ovennevnte tiltak har liten eller ingen effekt. De peker også på de alvorlige negative sidene og som berører svært mange barn og voksne. Nummer 1 i rekken av studier er utarbeidet av John P. A. Ioannidis fra Stanford University. Flere regner han som den aller fremste epidemiologen. Hvis ikke verdens ledere lytter til ledende forskere som han og andre, hvem er det de lytter til da?”
Liste med 30 studier:
1. “[T]here is no evidence that more restrictive nonpharmaceutical interventions [lockdowns] contributed substantially to bending the curve of new cases in England, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, or the United States in early 2020” https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/eci.13484
2. “Inferences on effects of NPIs are non-robust and highly sensitive to model specification. Claimed benefits of lockdown appear grossly exaggerated.” – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.22.20160341v3?fbclid=IwAR1A0CQ8P4w3aiM2xeo1lMWz2oWsT6oxzxF8s8LvgbwyL022nQirr_qRyeA
3. “[G]overnment actions such as border closures, full lockdowns, and a high rate of COVID-19 testing were not associated with statistically significant reductions in the number of critical cases or overall mortality” – https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30208-X/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR0W4t0ZjV0E-h8tWOxuEueiflC4M08JnVAH68lVkEdYtMMAQfRicGBuPEs
4. “Official data from Germany’s RKI agency suggest strongly that the spread of the coronavirus in Germany receded autonomously, before any interventions become effective” – https://advance.sagepub.com/articles/preprint/Comment_on_Dehning_et_al_Science_15_May_2020_eabb9789_Inferring_change_points_in_the_spread_of_COVID-19_reveals_the_effectiveness_of_interventions_/12362645?fbclid=IwAR2fO4xiit6VzRtOBQENMff0CwHEFal86vzE7Huu8IuyPTi0jVKffseG8Y0
5. “[T]he decline in infections in England…began before full lockdown…[S]uch a scenario would be consistent with…Sweden, which began its decline in fatal infections shortly after the UK, but did so on the basis of measures well short of full lockdown” – https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.02090.pdf
6. “[T]he UK lockdown was both superfluous (it did not prevent an otherwise explosive behavior of the spread of the coronavirus) and ineffective (it did not slow down the death growth rate visibly).” – https://www.datascienceassn.org/sites/default/files/Illusory%20Effects%20of%20Non-pharmaceutical%20Interventions%20on%20COVID19%20in%20Europe.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1fLy1uFlyhkKFvlEqHENgvaDWAd5l3B0iNHjc0HyJ5HqfGflfIlm2yK1I
7. “Given that the evidence reveals that the Corona disease declines even without a complete lockdown, it is recommendable to reverse the current policy and remove the lockdown” – https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-end-of-exponential-growth-the-decline-in-the-spread-of-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR1CTUKfTviuuuFRQAW5OFfgZzYY_rN8LBx7HvMDTxgfjlIUgO0Gshrbokc
8. “[S]tay at home orders, closure of all non-essential businesses and requiring the wearing of facemasks or coverings in public was not associated with any independent additional impact” – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20088260v2?fbclid=IwAR0fsICdzy6nDGQ4ocgXXIDXacsnrHo5pnaylbGVJZqtxRaizgjAz571VCY
9. “[T]hese strategies might not have saved any life in western Europe. We also show that neighbouring countries applying less restrictive social distancing measures … experience a very similar time evolution of the epidemic.”… “since the full lockdown strategies are shown to have no impact on the epidemic’s slowdown, one should consider their potentially high inherent death toll as a net loss of human lives”- https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1?fbclid=IwAR2sc9VRyzB2cgte-6UJ1LrEIB8OW_Wm1BBHHm4f9ojfLTZHd3cik_jt5jw
10. “[T]he model does not support [the] estimate that lockdown reduced the case reproduction number R by 81% or that more than three million deaths were averted by non-pharmaceutical interventions.” – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.26.20202267v1?fbclid=IwAR1UA4-7UMMno1m_2-EnjVy6mgk9xM6eWx3ZMl3HLW83MaSQLhLXTiBZ390
11. “The case of Sweden, where the authors find the reduction in transmission to have been only moderately weaker than in other countries despite no lockdown having occurred, is prima facie evidence” – https://www.nicholaslewis.org/did-lockdowns-really-save-3-million-covid-19-deaths-as-flaxman-et-al-claim/?fbclid=IwAR2VQjLp8rlfzO2gtIbvXxS-7L_VH3X58pgSkB1gvq1kuAVYR6wWC3k9NKw
12. “[G]eneral social distancing was also projected to reduce the number of cases but increase the total number of deaths compared with social distancing of over 70 only” … “Strategies that minimise deaths involve the infected fraction primarily being in the low-risk younger age groups—for example, focusing stricter social distancing measures on care homes where people are likely to die rather than schools where they are not.” … “results presented in the report suggested that the addition of interventions restricting younger people might actually increase the total number of deaths from covid-19” – https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3588?fbclid=IwAR2IsWy8N_KbDGGsx1r1gAqyasQsQL-hq3jwGraz72ee0X4f7Lmn-Deaq_8
13. “We show that [lockdown] is modestly superior in saving lives compared to [focused protection], but with tremendous costs to prevent one case of death. This might result in overwhelming economic effects that are expected to increase future death toll” https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20047860v3?fbclid=IwAR14l4P8_nCJ4jhAbzGkztElAPTK7nMNp0YyIonrGefdZwcIMwFyll3OoGA
14. “For pathogens that inflict greater morbidity at older ages, interventions that reduce but do not eliminate exposure can paradoxically increase the number of cases of severe disease by shifting the burden of infection toward older individuals” –https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2652751/?fbclid=IwAR1fLy1uFlyhkKFvlEqHENgvaDWAd5l3B0iNHjc0HyJ5HqfGflfIlm2yK1I
15. “Current policy can be misdirected and can therefore have long and even short-term negative effects on human welfare and thus result in not actually minimizing death rates (incorporating externalities), especially in the long run.” – https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3607803&fbclid=IwAR1AsCBMI_B1rJIHuYCnlXeGYTQdRFPzGi9Qux66VMjqkByXcWvEF1tsZjw
16. “For example, the data…shows a decrease in infection rates after countries eased…lockdowns with >99% statistical significance. Indeed…infection rates have declined after reopening even after allowing for an appropriate measurement lag. This means that the pandemic and COVID-19 likely have its own dynamics unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures that were being implemented.” –https://imgcdn.larepublica.co/cms/2020/05/21180548/JP-Morgan.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3gahS89gn0IH4i9uTcYZz8P5ljSSGqETS_nvO71XkPLiING_gJfHPzaDQ
17. “[R]estrictions imposed by the pandemic (eg, stay-at-home orders) could claim lives indirectly through delayed care for acute emergencies, exacerbations of chronic diseases, and psychological distress (eg, drug overdoses).”… “In 14 states, more than 50% of excess deaths were attributed to underlying causes other than COVID-19; these included California (55% of excess deaths) and Texas (64% of excess deaths)” –https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768086?fbclid=IwAR3U4xAkevdOHcN8fMK78jJ4OanF17LUkNPKGryTyEjF1eZ6Uj-VNtUYhI0
18. “We found that 180-day of mandatory isolations to healthy <60 (ie schools and workplaces closed) produces more final deaths if the vaccination date is later than (Madrid: Feb 23 2021; Catalonia: Dec 28 2020; Paris: Jan 14 2021; London: Jan 22 2021)” –https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.09.20210146v3?fbclid=IwAR3_Ud-_cIkIa3DMbtWgnRD2ahsdFHrjHtSFkm91jagKNtqmObZyZ-YzPEw
19. “Comparing weekly mortality in 24 European countries, the findings in this paper suggest that more severe lockdown policies have not been associated with lower mortality. In other words, the lockdowns have not worked as intended” – http://covestreetcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Lockdown.pdf
20. “Our findings … further raise doubt about the importance in NPI’s (lockdown policies in particular) in accounting for the evolution of COVID-19 transmission rates over time and across locations” –https://www.nber.org/papers/w27719?fbclid=IwAR0SZo074a7KLLSDegiLKwL2Y5Kjn9tSvV4K9bSn38RDxOCZgmKrt312hRU
21. “[The] President…has flatly denied the seriousness of the pandemic, refusing to impose a lockdown, close schools, or cancel mass events…Yet the country’s death rate is among the lowest in Europe-just over 700 in a population of 9.5 million” – https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3543?fbclid=IwAR1A0CQ8P4w3aiM2xeo1lMWz2oWsT6oxzxF8s8LvgbwyL022nQirr_qRyeA
22. “[L]iving with children 0-11 years was not associated with increased risks of recorded SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19 related hospital or ICU admission but was associated with reduced risk of COVID-19 death (HR 0.75, 95%CI 0.62-0.92).” – https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.01.20222315v1?fbclid=IwAR14r9Eq671jihg3GCFK4PyJe1B50WaCH8h_Fw2GfhY24_v8OnkLXVcns9A
23. “Consistent with observations that .. lockdown has not been observed to effect the rate…of the country reproduction rates significantly, our analysis suggests there is no basis for expecting lockdown stringency to be an explanatory variable” – https://pandata.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Exploring-inter-country-variation.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3QyKys9I3wVVqyiiHJjETCVc3Pnsn-JGbU8PJFDuSZWveFAX7iWqD4qsU
24. “This study shows that the virus is already here, and we must find ways of living with it such that it caused no or minimal human and socioeconomic losses in … Nigeria as a whole…. going back to the lockdown should never again be entertained” –https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.04.20168112v1.full
25. “[R]ecruits were under the constant supervision of Marine Corps instructors. Other settings in which young adults congregate are unlikely to reflect similar adherence to measures intended to reduce transmission.” –https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2029717?fbclid=IwAR3gahS89gn0IH4i9uTcYZz8P5ljSSGqETS_nvO71XkPLiING_gJfHPzaDQ
26. “The national criteria most associated with death rate are life expectancy and its slowdown, public health context (metabolic and non-communicable diseases (NCD) burden vs. infectious diseases prevalence), economy (growth national product, financial support), and environment (temperature, ultra-violet index). Stringency of the measures settled to fight pandemia, including lockdown, did not appear to be linked with death rate” –https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.604339/full?fbclid=IwAR3gCXIduAWrtmInM6IKLA84nJJzOV2_SN-WLm_4KzD-S9Rgu98hQhe4s70
27. “Whether a county had a lockdown has no effect on Covid-19 deaths; a non-effect that persists over time. Cross-country studies also find lockdowns are superfluous and ineffective (Homberg 2020). This ineffectiveness may have several causes. ” –https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00779954.2020.1844786?journalCode=rnzp20&fbclid=IwAR0fsICdzy6nDGQ4ocgXXIDXacsnrHo5pnaylbGVJZqtxRaizgjAz571VCY&
28. “There are no historical observations…that support.. confinement by quarantine of groups of possibly infected people for extended periods…The negative consequences…are so extreme…this mitigation..should be eliminated from serious consideration” http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/website/resources/publications/2006/2006-09-15-diseasemitigationcontrolpandemicflu.html?fbclid=IwAR1m47IxlTsPitZ-W6MdHRixm1szL5KaY52c17ktMethd85PaJdDUn5DByg
29. “[W]e present data demonstrating that mortality due to covid-19… could have been largely predicted even before the pandemic hit Europe, simply by looking at longitudinal variability of all-cause mortality rates in the years preceding the…outbreak” –https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.25.20248853v1?fbclid=IwAR0p45tFFwMbb47_6Nc1aHJxNGYyw3iPsW8lIyCMb6ziAEGb-sP4qXTfpLI
30. “Our analysis shows that while infection levels decreased, they did so before lockdown was effective, and infection numbers also decreased in neighbour municipalities without mandates” –https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.28.20248936v1?fbclid=IwAR14r9Eq671jihg3GCFK4PyJe1B50WaCH8h_Fw2GfhY24_v8OnkLXVcns9A
The above papers suggest lockdowns have very limited effectiveness at best AND horrible side effects.
Relatert lesing:
KORONA KAVALKADE – HVOR MYE AV DETTE HAR DU GLEMT?
https://olehartattordet.blogg.no/korona-kavalkade.html
https://olehartattordet.blogg.no/korona-kavalkade.html
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